Macro Research
Forward Guidance Market Views
A synthesis of every specific asset mentioned across eight Forward Guidance episodes, with bull/bear theses by speaker.
Portfolio
What it would look like to hold these speakers' views simultaneously. Illustrative, not recommended.
Long
- AI infrastructure (including utilities and power)
- Copper
- Agricultural commodities
- Gold smaller, contested
- December oil futures
- Long-dated fixed-rate mortgage debt
- US dollar basket
- LNG (liquefied natural gas)
- Stablecoin infrastructure
- Brazil and Mexico equities
- Defense
Short / Hedge
Sell Vol On
Options are expensive here. Harvest premium by selling.
Buy Vol On
Options are cheap here. Pay premium for convex upside.
Invalidations
- Oil > $150Demand destruction kicks in.
- 10y yield > 5.5%Bond market breaks.
- USDJPY 160 breakDollar wrecking ball / global capital repatriation.
- Fed turns actually hawkishNot just "no cuts." Active tightening.
Speaker Key
Felix, Quinn, TylerForward Guidance hosts (Blockworks)
DuttaNeil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research
DayanDanny Dayan, Macro Musings (@DannyDayan5)
HouSteve Hou, Bloomberg quant researcher
HowellMichael Howell, CrossBorder Capital
Hosts are identified by first names only. The transcripts do not include surnames. Felix is the lead host across all eight episodes; Quinn and Tyler co-host the weekly roundups. Where the transcript is ambiguous about which co-host is speaking, attributions are best-guess from content cues. Verify against the audio if it matters.
Equity Indices & Themes
| Asset | Position | Thesis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | BullNear-term, late-cycle | Melt-up parabolic until oil $150 / 10y >5.5% / Fed turns hawkish. Sell-the-news on Fed meetings now. | Dayan· May 6 |
| QQQ / NASDAQ | MixedTactical bull, structural risk | 30% is hyperscalers. P/FCF >> P/E creates an air pocket if AI productivity disappoints. Hit if USDJPY 160 breaks. | Tyler· May 8, Quinn· Apr 30 |
| Equal-weight S&P (RSP) | BearLagging | Hasn't made a new ATH; keeps getting rejected. "Not Main Street's turn." | Quinn· May 8 |
| MAG7 / MAGS ETF | BearLagging | Below yearly open, well off October highs while SOX is +15–20% above prior highs. | Quinn· Apr 24 |
| Semis (SMH / SOX) | BullTrend / short-term stretched | Up 16 days in a row; implied vol at 96th percentile. Sell vol, don't fade direction. | Tyler· Apr 24 |
| AI infrastructure | High Conviction Bull | Marginal driver of US growth. Many names still cheap. | Tyler· Apr 24 |
| Software (IGV) | Bear | Service Now -14% blew up the software bounce. Capital rotating from software to hardware. | Tyler· Apr 24 |
| Retail (XRT) | Bear | "Looks horrible" alongside homebuilders and home improvement. | Dutta· May 13 |
| Homebuilders | Bear | Chart "looks like horrible." | Dutta· May 13 |
Single Stocks
| Asset | Position | Thesis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA / Nvidia | BullImplicit | Plumbers/electricians = bottleneck quote came from Jensen on Dwarkesh. Capex story intact. | Felix· Apr 24 |
| Intel (INTC) | Bull | +13–16% AH on blowout. "This has legs." | Felix· Apr 24 |
| Tesla (TSLA) | WatchCapex spender | $25B+ capex Q2–Q4. Forced into the AI race. | Tyler· Apr 24 |
| Oracle (ORCL) | WatchCautionary tale | Trade horizon discipline. Don't buy 20-day OTM calls on a multi-year thesis. | Felix· Apr 24 |
| Service Now | BearTrigger | -14% on earnings; software ETF spillover. | Tyler· Apr 24 |
| Allbirds, Warby Parker, Credo | MemeAvoid being short | Allbirds AI pivot = Kodak crypto 2019 redux. Pandora's box for short-interest squeezes. Credo whipsaw 220→80→up. | Felix· Apr 16, Tyler· Apr 16 |
| Bloom Energy | BullImplicit | Off-grid power for data centers = "21st-century gas stations." | Tyler· Apr 30 |
| SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic | IPO watch | Diversification trigger when these list. | Tyler· Apr 16 |
| Coinbase, Cloudflare, Upwork | BearLabor disruption | Headline layoffs (20–24% workforce cuts). "Bullshit jobs" disruption. | Felix· May 8 |
| Doordash | Tell | Q1 blew the doors off. Top decile still spending. | Felix· May 8 |
Bonds & Rates
| Asset | Position | Thesis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US bonds (long-end) | Bear (yields up) | "Bearish bonds even if war ends." Growth re-accelerates either way. Watch 10y 5.5%. | Quinn· May 8, Dayan· May 6 |
| 2y / front-end | Hikes pricing | Terminal policy rate up across major bond markets. Curve flattening, not steepening. | Howell· Apr 22 |
| Term premium | Down | Demand for safe assets rising as liquidity tightens. Opposite of the media narrative. | Howell· Apr 22 |
| Yield curve | Bear flatten | Bear-flattening phase confirmed. Was contrarian Jan 1 call. | Howell· Apr 22 |
| TIP / IEF ratio | BullInflation regime | Broke out. New regime signal. | Tyler· May 8 |
| 5y inflation swap | Bull | At 3-year highs. | Tyler· May 8 |
| High yield (HY) | No edge | Spreads 317bp, only +2bp despite war. The crappy stuff is hiding in private credit. | Tyler· Apr 24 |
| Private credit | Risk hidden | Where the bad deals are warehoused. | Tyler· Apr 24 |
| MOVE index | Suppressed | Every 10pt rise → ~$28B Treasury buybacks. Targeting vol low for the basis trade. | Howell· Apr 22 |
| VIX | Buy upside | At 17 with 1–1.5% daily moves. Don't bet on lower. | Dayan· May 6 |
| Rate hike bets | Long | Hedge structure of choice. RBA already hiking; US likely follows. | Dayan· May 6 |
FX
| Asset | Position | Thesis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD (DXY) | BullBase forming | Massive base. SWIFT usage surging. Stablecoins are the next leg. Short bias ending. | Quinn· Apr 24, Tyler· Apr 16, Dayan· May 6 |
| USDJPY | Highest conviction long | 230% debt/GDP, BOJ 100% balance sheet, vol at 2y lows. 160 break = wrecking ball. Jan 2027 expiry trade. | Quinn· Apr 30 |
| EUR | Bear | Pricing ECB hikes already. Limited upside. | Dayan· May 6 |
| GBP / AUD / NZD | Bear | BoE / RBA / RBNZ priced. US rates have more room. | Dayan· May 6 |
Commodities
| Asset | Position | Thesis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil (WTI / Brent / USO) | High Conviction LongDec futures + sell long-dated puts | 50–60% annualized carry. Restocking demand underappreciated. Gold/oil 20× ratio → oil up is the cycle ender. | Quinn· May 8, Tyler· May 8, Howell· Apr 22 |
| WTI vs Brent spread | Long Brent / Short WTI | Export-ban scenario spikes Brent, tanks WTI. | Quinn· Apr 30 |
| Gold | Split call | Bullish: China bid back, Fed sidelined, inflation up (Quinn, Tyler). Bearish: dollar substitute, story not intact (Dayan). Net: still bullish through midterms. | Quinn· May 8, Dayan· May 6 |
| Silver | Skip | "Same story as gold, don't need it." | Dayan· May 6 |
| Copper | Bull | Data centers + supply chain. Preferred over gold/silver. | Dayan· May 6 |
| Agriculture (wheat, sugar, corn, soybeans, cattle, cocoa) | Bull | "Every commodity on the screen ripping. How inflation starts. 2021 redux." | Quinn· May 8 |
| Lumber | BullReplacement cost | Housing replacement cost rising. Labor shortage + commodity inputs. | Quinn· May 8 |
| Uranium / nuclear | BullImplicit | US needs to rebuild nuclear base for the AI power race vs. China. | Tyler· May 8 |
Crypto
| Asset | Position | Thesis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | Sell into gold | "Probably a good place to sell BTC and buy gold." | Quinn· May 8 |
| BTC / ETH / SOL basket | Bear near-term | Liquidity leads 13 weeks. Heading into a "tougher period." | Howell· Apr 22 |
| Stablecoins | BullStructural | Next leg of dollar dominance; disintermediates banks. | Howell· Apr 22 |
Real Estate
| Asset | Position | Thesis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Residential (coveted areas) with 30y fixed debt | High Conviction Long | 1970–80 analog: mortgage rates 2×, home values 3×. Get long-term fixed debt now. | Quinn· May 8 |
| General US housing / building permits | BearNear-term | Permits at multi-month lows; residential investment sluggish. | Dutta· May 13 |
| Commercial real estate (CRE) offices | BearLong-term | Empty offices, no return-to-office. Citadel canceling $6B NYC tower. | Tyler· Apr 24 |
| Austin / Miami / TX / FL CRE | Bull | Permissive states pull data center jobs + young workers. | Tyler & Quinn· Apr 24 |
| SF / NYC / CA / NY / WA / GA CRE | Bear | Restrictive policy, banning data centers, losing the build. | Quinn· Apr 16 |
Inferences (Extrapolations)
Not mentioned by name but follow directly from positioning. Treat as candidates consistent with the speakers' framework, not their explicit calls. No timestamp links because these are extrapolations, not direct quotes.
| Inference trade | From whose thesis | Logic |
|---|---|---|
| Long power / utility names with data-center exposure VST, CEG, TLN, NRG, PWR | Hou + Tyler | Skilled-trades shortage + grid limits → priced in power producers and electrical contractors. |
| Long industrials with data-center build exposure J, FIX, PWR, EME | Dutta | Non-res construction is the payroll story; heavy/civil engineering + specialty trade contractors. |
| Long natural gas / LNG LNG, CHRD, RRC, EQT | Tyler | US LNG exporter to weaken China energy + Bloom Energy off-grid; direct domestic energy-security beneficiary. |
| Long defense LMT, NOC, RTX, GD, ANDU | Tyler aside | "Depleting US arsenal, China edge on Taiwan" implies rebuilds incoming. |
| Long ag producers / fertilizer DE, AGCO, CTVA, NTR, MOS, ADM | Quinn | "Every ag commodity ripping." Direct way to express the broad commodity thesis. |
| Long Korean / Taiwanese export proxies TSM, EWY, EWT, SMSN | Hou | "Korean/Taiwanese economies on fire from chip/memory exports." Mirror side of US AI imports. |
| Long mid / small-cap industrials IWM cyclical sleeve | Quinn | "S&P 600 / midcap EPS revisions higher." Earnings broadening beyond AI. |
| Short long-duration consumer discretionary e.g. Carvana, RH, beaten-down DTC | Dutta + Tyler | Real-income squeeze (XRT, homebuilders) + DTC vintage rot (Allbirds analog). |
| Long Berkshire / cash-rich value | Howell | Cash wins in turbulence phase per the 4-season framework. |
| Short Japanese equities (EWJ) or hedge the yen leg | Quinn | JGB Ponzi call extends to Japanese stocks if the currency breaks. |
| Short emerging Asia ex-energy producers | Hou + Dutta | Split EM Asia: long chip exporters (Korea, Taiwan), short energy importers (India, broader South Asia). |
| Long platinum / palladium PPLT, PALL | Dayan | Per Dayan's "commodities you need" framing over gold/silver. Auto + industrial demand, tight supply. |
| Buy long-dated VIX / SPX vol | Tyler, Dayan | Vol at 17 floor; convexity into Sep / Oct. |
| Short SaaS basket IGV, WCLD | Tyler | "Software bouncing then rolling over." Capex spread + price-isn't-right on AI tokens. |
| Long ag REITs / farmland LAND, FPI | Quinn | Food / ag inflation. Real assets with cash yield. |
| Long Mexico / Latam EWW, EWZ | Tyler aside | "Western hemisphere strongholds, Greenland / Venezuela." Hemisphere dominance frame. |
Sources
- 2026-04-16Market Structure Is Fueling an Inflation Trap. Weekly RoundupYouTube
- 2026-04-22Markets Are Misreading a Late-Cycle Liquidity Crunch. Michael HowellYouTube
- 2026-04-24The Fed Is Irrelevant While CapEx Runs the Economy. Weekly RoundupYouTube
- 2026-04-29The AI Bubble Is Widely Misunderstood. Steve HouYouTube
- 2026-04-30Central Bank Control Is Breaking. Weekly RoundupYouTube
- 2026-05-06Passive Easing Is Fueling the Next Inflation Wave. Danny DayanYouTube
- 2026-05-08Oil and AI Are Breaking the Middle Class. Weekly RoundupYouTube
- 2026-05-13The Fed Is Losing Its Easing Bias. Neil DuttaYouTube
Glossary
10y / 2y10-year / 2-year US Treasury yield.
AHAfter-hours trading.
ATHAll-time high.
BoEBank of England.
BOJBank of Japan.
bp / bpsBasis points. 1 bp = 0.01%.
BrentNorth Sea oil benchmark.
CRECommercial real estate.
DTCDirect-to-consumer.
DXYUS Dollar Index. USD vs basket of major currencies.
ECBEuropean Central Bank.
FCFFree cash flow.
HYHigh-yield (junk) bonds.
IEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF.
IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF.
JGBJapanese government bonds.
LNGLiquefied natural gas. Also the ticker for Cheniere Energy.
MAG7The Magnificent 7: Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, Tesla.
MAGSRoundhill Magnificent Seven ETF.
MOVEICE BofA MOVE Index. Bond-market implied volatility, the Treasury equivalent of VIX.
OTMOut-of-the-money options.
P/EPrice-to-earnings ratio.
P/FCFPrice-to-free-cash-flow ratio.
QQQInvesco QQQ Trust. Nasdaq-100 ETF.
RBAReserve Bank of Australia.
RBNZReserve Bank of New Zealand.
RSPInvesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF.
SaaSSoftware as a service.
SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF.
SOXPhiladelphia Semiconductor Index.
TIPiShares TIPS Bond ETF. Inflation-protected Treasuries.
USDJPYUS dollar / Japanese yen exchange rate.
USOUnited States Oil Fund. The main oil ETF.
VIXCBOE Volatility Index. The market's expected 30-day S&P 500 volatility.
WCLDWisdomTree Cloud Computing ETF.
WTIWest Texas Intermediate. US oil benchmark.
XRTSPDR S&P Retail ETF.